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Historisk tidskrift 130:4 • 2010

Innehåll (Contents) 2010:4

Uppsatser (Articles)

Bönder som värnare – beväpning, status och uppror. Feodala kontrapunkter i Europa i ett longue durée-perspektiv ca 1000–1800

Av Rodney Edvinsson

 

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Summary

The Swedish model of economic cycles

The debate on whether or not there are long cycles in economic development has been going on for almost a century. Supporters of the theory of long cycles argue that capitalism follows a cycle of 40 to 60 years duration, with different phases. Braudel proposes that there is an even longer cycle of 150–350 years – la longue durée – that can be traced back to the Middle Ages. Critics maintain that the different historical-economic segments of past cycles are in fact caused by random variations and major political events that cannot be predicted in advance.

The topic of this essay relates to an ongoing Swedish economic-historical discussion concerning long-term structural change. The chief representative of the theory of long cycles in Sweden is the economic historian Lennart Schön, although his structural economic cycle model differs from established international theories of long cycles. Schön describes the Swedish economic development since the industrial breakthrough as an alternation between transformation phases of 20–25 years and rationalization phases of 15–20 years. He also suggests that there may be even longer cycles. This essay analyzes the emergence of the Swedish structural economic cycle model. The model has largely been developed in isolation from the international debate, despite recent claims by Schön that it is also relevant for the world economy. Its advocates have also shifted between which structural indicators that should be used to claim support for its periodisation.

Keywords

long cycles, transformation, rationalization, structural change, economic growth, la longue durée