Historisk tidskrift 128:4 • 2008
Innehåll (Contents) 2008:4
Uppsatser (Articles)
Spårbundenhet. Från fysik till historia
Mats Bladh
Fulltext (pdf)
Summary
Path dependence. From physics to history
The limits and possibilities of the theory of path dependence
are discussed in this paper. From a historian’s point of view
the theory is limited by its use of analogies to physical causality.
On the other hand the theory offers a strong and specific argument
in support of the claim that ”history matters”.
Paul A. David invented the theory of path dependence using
the example of the qwerty keyboard, a layout unchanged since
the 1890s despite the existence of superior solutions. His
was an effort to convince economists of the importance of history
and was therefore formulated as a provocation within the economist’s
paradigm. It was an attack on the concept of ”decreasing returns
to scale”, which is the foundation for the neoclassical view
of the self-regulating market. David, together with Brian Arthur,
polemically emphasized ”increasing returns to adop- tion” in
an effort to prove the survival of choices made in the past.
The theory has gained acceptance among some economists, but
has also been imprisoned within a paradigm foreign to the historian.
However, David has explained that path dependence covers a
broader class of cases. The second part of the article is devoted
to a discussion of how the theory can be reformulated without
loosing clarity. The discussion is organized around three elements
of the original theory: a) a solution has survived despite
the disap- pearance of the problem; b) a solution lasts due
to lock-in or some kind of inflexi- bility; c) the solution
is suboptimal compared to later alternatives. In relation to
these elements it is argued that a solution may not only be
the result of chance or irrationality, but rational in the
circumstances of the past situation. Furthermore, that in order
for a path to exist there must have appeared an alternative.
Without an alternative there is no path. Lastly, that suboptimality
cannot be a necessary criterion for the definition of a path,
since, for example, the superior or inferior quality of a specific
solution in many cases is a matter of debate.
In conclusion, it is argued that path dependence can be used
in many empirical fields, but it is still a specific theory
about a strong heritage from the past in the present.
Keywords
path dependence, theory, paradigm
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