Historisk tidskrift 124:4 • 2004
Innehåll (Contents) 2004:4
Uppsatser (Articles)
På cykeltur i svensk ekonomisk historia? Strukturförändring,
tillväxt och teknisk förändring i svensk ekonomi 1870–1990
Magnus Lindmark & Peter Vikström
Fulltext (pdf)
Summary
Cycling through Swedish Economic History. Structural
Transformation, Economic Growth and Technological Change in the
Swedish Economy, 1870–1990
This article assesses the structural transformation perspective
on macro-economic change, which dominates the literature on economic
change in Sweden in the period 1870 to 1990. The so-called structural
analytical school assumes a repetitive cycle of structural change,
structural rationalisation and structural crisis, henceforth
referred to as ”the hypothesis of structural transformation”,
or HOST.
According to the hypothesis, cycles of structural transformation
lasts approximately 40 years and resemble Kondratieff waves with
respect to their duration and the importance of the diffusion
of general-purpose technologies, or GPT. The diffusion of a new
GPT gives rise to structural change as the factors of production
are concentrated in the new economic sector whereas the old ones
stagnate or decline. This is a process of approximately 20 years
duration. In the next stage, also lasting about 20 years, the
new economic sector is further rationalised as production factors
are concentrated in the most efficient industries within the
new economic sector. As this stage draws to a close, increasing
overproduction occurs, leading to a structural crisis and pressure
for new change. For a while, the crisis is held off by a shift
of production to the export market and by the actions of diverse
”vested interests”. Eventually, however, the pressure for change
mounts to the point where the old economic structure breaks down,
clearing the way for a new cycle of structural transformation.
Despite its dominance, there are several reasons why HOST is
problematic. From the perspective of standard economic theory
it may be noted that crises do not serve as a catalyst for structural
change in economic theory, nor is the concept of ”vested interests”
in its present shape clearly compatible with mainstream theory.
But HOST is also problematic from an empirical perspective. Strict
testing of the HOST chronology is in fact not possible and there
is also the possibility that the chronology has been built into
the data-set on which the hypothesis rests.
On the basis of a
critical assessment of HOST, the article provides an investigation
of structural change of the Swedish economy that identifies a
sequence of periods with different characteristics instead of
a series of repetitive cycles. The main point of the article,
however, is not so much to criticise HOST as to call for more
debate on macro-economic interpretations in Swedish economic
history.
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